1. Does an Election Slow Down the Housing Market?
- Answer: From October to November, home sales decrease by 9.8% in a typical year and 15% in an election year.
- This Year: 23% of first-time buyers are waiting until after the election to buy.
2. Do More Homes Sell After an Election?
- Answer: Home sales tend to bounce right back and 82% of the time, they have gone up the following year.
- This Year: Experts forecast home sales will rise from 4.6M in 2024 to 5.2M in 2025.
3. What Happens to Mortgage Rates in an Election Year?
- Answer: From July to November in election years, mortgage rates have decreased 72% of the time.
- This Year: We’ve been in a volatile environment, including average rates as low as 6.08% in September. Overall, they’ve come down from nearly 8% last fall.
4. What Happens to Home Prices After an Election?
- Answer: Prices have risen 88% of the time in the year following an election.
- This Year: Nationally, home prices are projected to continue going up by 2.5% in 2025.
The facts show Presidential Elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.
Sources: BTIG, Census, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, MBA, NAR, Redfin, ReelClub
Some Highlights
- Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market.
- When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election.
- The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.
